The Return of Tony Blair

A decade and a half after Tony Blair left Downing Street, one subject nonetheless defines the previous British prime minister within the eyes of many Britons: his disastrous resolution to hitch the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq.

When Mr. Blair was given a knighthood by Queen Elizabeth II final 12 months, greater than one million folks signed a petition demanding the consideration be rescinded. And inside his personal Labour Party, he remained a posh determine, detested by these on the far left whereas grudgingly admired by some who famous that he was the occasion’s solely chief to have gained three consecutive British elections.

Today, with the Labour opposition sensing rising energy beneath the stewardship of its chief, Keir Starmer, Mr. Blair is instantly, and relatively remarkably, again in favor. For Mr. Starmer, embracing Mr. Blair sends a political message, underscoring Labour’s shift to the middle. But the previous prime minister additionally has charisma and communication abilities that Mr. Starmer lacks, belongings that might be helpful as a basic election approaches.

Last month, the 2 males appeared onstage collectively, exchanging compliments at a glitzy convention organized by the Tony Blair Institute for Global Change — a company that works for governments world wide, together with autocratic ones, and churns out insurance policies that would assist Labour if it wins the subsequent election.

Mr. Blair, now 70, is graying, thinner and his face somewhat extra gaunt than when he left Downing Street in 2007. But he nonetheless effortlessly held the stage as he instructed the viewers that Britain could be in secure arms if Mr. Starmer gained the subsequent election.

“It was like the apostolic succession was being declared,” mentioned John McTernan, a political strategist and onetime aide to Mr. Blair, who added that “the chemistry between the two guys made you think they talk a lot and they understand each other.”

Jill Rutter, a former civil servant and a senior fellow on the Institute for Government, a London-based analysis institute, mentioned Mr. Blair “has clearly been keen to reinsert himself as a big player in British politics,” however Mr. Starmer “is the first leader who seems prepared to let him do so.”

The right-leaning Daily Telegraph newspaper was extra blunt. “Tony Blair is preparing to rule Britain again — and Starmer might just let him,” learn the headline of an opinion article.

In an announcement, the institute mentioned, “Mr. Blair took the view then and is strongly of the view now — as he has said publicly — that whilst the murder of Mr. Khashoggi was a terrible crime that should never have happened, the program of social and economic change underway in Saudi Arabia is of immense and positive importance to the region and the world.”

“The relationship with Saudi Arabia is of critical strategic importance to the West,” it added, and “therefore staying engaged there is justified.”

None of those criticisms have stopped a rehabilitation that may have been inconceivable whereas Labour was led by Mr. Starmer’s predecessor, Jeremy Corbyn, a left-winger and a fierce political adversary of Mr. Blair’s. At the time, Mr. Starmer labored alongside Mr. Corbyn, and when Mr. Starmer turned occasion chief in 2020, he initially stored Mr. Blair at arm’s size.

Now, their ties are so heat that when the previous prime minister just lately celebrated his birthday at a London restaurant, Mr. Starmer dropped by to want him properly.

“Tony has just kept going after a period in which it was almost like the Labour Party didn’t want him to be around,” mentioned Alastair Campbell, Mr. Blair’s former spokesman. “I think people eventually think, ‘Say what you like about the guy, but he’s good at what he does; he’s still the most credible explainer of difficult situations.’”

Some see a modern-day political parable in Mr. Blair’s return.

“A lot of politics has now taken on the narrative of celebrity,” mentioned Mr. McTernan, the political strategist, including, “Tony, as a political celebrity, fell in the eyes of the public but he has earned his way back.”

“It’s not about forgiveness about Iraq, but there is an arc of a narrative around Tony,” Mr. McTernan mentioned, with Britons beginning to “be ready to listen again.”

Mr. Blair’s political rehabilitation has been helped by comparisons with a governing Conservative Party that has presided over political turmoil. Years of impasse over Brexit have been damaged when Boris Johnson gained a landslide election in 2019 — solely to be pushed out of Downing Street final 12 months beneath a cloud of scandal. He was changed by Liz Truss, the British prime minister with the shortest stint in historical past, earlier than Rishi Sunak restored some stability.

“We have had such a succession of failed prime ministers that, to look at someone who did command the stage, you do look back and say, ‘He was quite a big dominating prime minister,’” mentioned Ms. Rutter.

The institute’s output has additionally helped change Mr. Blair’s picture, Mr. Campbell, his former spokesman, mentioned. The former prime minister noticed a niche for comparatively nonideological analysis specializing in technocratic policymaking and tackling challenges resembling synthetic intelligence, digital coverage and relations with the European Union.

With about 800 employees members scattered world wide in Abu Dhabi, Accra, San Francisco, Singapore and New York, and a glossy, trendy workplace within the West End of London, the institute has even had affect over the Conservative authorities, Ms. Rutter mentioned, pointing to Mr. Blair’s proposal throughout the coronavirus pandemic to construction its vaccine program round giving as many individuals as potential a primary shot.

Mr. Campbell, his former spokesman, added that the work of the institute confirmed Mr. Blair in a brand new gentle, being profitable not only for himself but in addition “to build an organization, the fruits of which people are now seeing.”

Perhaps the largest query is: Now what?

“In the campaign, does an intervention from Tony help?” Mr. Campbell mentioned of the approaching election. “In my mind, it would; it would be big news. But that’s a tactical question.”

If Labour wins energy, extra prospects for affect would open up for Mr. Blair.

Ms. Rutter suggests he has constructed up his institute partially as a result of, when he was in Downing Street — which has comparatively few employees members in contrast with authorities departments — he believed he had too few specialists at his disposal.

“The question is whether Blair is content to have an institute churning out reports that a Labour government may or may not want to look at, or will he be looking to be more of a power behind the throne,” she mentioned.

Mr. Blair, she added, “has tried to amass a huge piece of policy capability — the only problem for him now is that he’s not prime minister.”